Election 2024: “What the Hell is Going on Over There?” –Every Foreign Investor
It’s finally election day in the United States and the outcome of this historic decision point is still anyone’s guess. While Americans anxiously wait for the polls to close and each broadcast network to fire up their respective magic walls, many around the world are watching our democratic process unfold with trepidation about what the result could mean for them.
This is especially true for foreign corporations that interface with the world’s largest economy—whether that’s through intertwined supply chains, reliance on American R&D and technical expertise, or focus on the US as a customer market. When “Made in America” becomes a campaign rallying cry for both political parties, business leaders abroad need to begin assessing this election’s risk and opportunity landscape to position themselves for success over the next four years. For international businesses exploring large capital projects in the US, the stakes are high. The right approach now could mean rapid growth, but failing to proactively adapt to shifting policies could lead to heavy costs and falling behind.
We’re in a new era of industrial policy, with many countries refocusing on more insular economic principles following decades of outward globalization. The US was a primary influence on this worldwide shift, and that tide has now swept up America’s two primary political parties. Despite both candidates being on past winning tickets, there is no incumbent in this race and there will be a new president come January. The outcome of this election could transform the way foreign companies operate within and across American borders.
In this post, we’ll explore key factors foreign businesses must consider as they plan their US investment strategies amid electoral uncertainty. Our last post explored the implications of this election for innovators and start-ups, which you can find here .
Making it in America: When Life Gives You Tariff Lemons, Make Lemonade
Despite how either candidate might articulate their positions on the stump, a shift toward protectionist economic policies doesn’t necessarily mean “keep out”. To the contrary, it often means “build here.”
Regardless of who wins the election, it appears that the current political focus on re-shoring manufacturing and other key industrial sectors will continue and likely increase. While the outcomes are likely the same, the methods each candidate will deploy vary significantly and will inevitably affect both the motivation for and process by which a company might pursue US investment.
Perhaps the single largest variable across both candidates’ platforms is the tariffs and other trade policies that a hypothetical Trump Administration intends to deploy, which would likely amount to one of the greatest economic shifts in modern times. Due to both their direct impacts on foreign businesses and their indirect impacts on American companies and downstream consumers, this upheaval would likely create a major ‘stick’ that forces international companies to concentrate elements of their operations in the states to avoid fallout from trade wars and/or risk losing practical access to the US market entirely.
At the same time, a hypothetical Harris Administration will likely focus more on ‘carrots’— new government spending in the form of funding programs and other mechanisms that incentivize the re-shoring of domestic production. This is particularly true for targeted industrial sectors like clean technology and natural resources.
Regardless of whether foreign corporations are negatively or positively induced to make new investments in the US, properly navigating the government landscape can convert challenges into opportunities and risks into rewards.
Recommendation: Assess the political sensitivity of your sector against potential election outcomes. Evaluate whether sticks or carrots—or both—may change your company’s orientation toward potential US investment projects. Don’t get caught flat footed and on the outside looking in. Consider starting the due diligence process early to understand what making such an investment in the US looks like for your business.
Social License to Operate: Building Goodwill Before You Break Ground
Entering the US market isn’t just about analyzing federal policy and pursuing incentive programs. In a polarized US political climate, “foreign” doesn’t always translate to “welcome.”
Public perception—and misperception—of foreign investment varies widely depending on the nature of the project and targeted community. Whether a business is building a new manufacturing plant, a data center, or a renewable energy project, negative sentiment—whether driven by competition, media narratives, or community concerns—can quickly escalate into a genie that can’t be put back in the bottle. This is especially true of projects with significant environmental impact, employment impacts, use of public resources, or technologies that are simply unfamiliar to the local population.
‘Social License to Operate’ is not a given, may not be earned easily, and may remain fragile long after it’s initially gained. When projects encounter local resistance, the risks of delays, added costs, and regulatory hurdles multiply. Failure on this front can inflict catastrophic consequences that ultimately cause companies to abandon projects and waste capital.
Businesses can’t put off addressing this need until after a problem arises. Community trust must be built from the start—often before a company has even selected an exact location for its investment. Achieving “social license” isn’t just about satisfying local authorities, it’s about fostering community support that can protect your project from public pushback and ensure long-term viability.
Recommendation: Invest early in community engagement as a core part of your US strategy. Identify and connect with key local leaders, community groups, and community influencers as early as possible. Demonstrate transparency in your project goals, highlight the local economic benefits, and be prepared to come to the table with an open mind and willingness to change elements of your project to fit community feedback. By proactively building social license, you can reduce the risk of unexpected opposition and establish your company as a responsible contributor to the community.
Site Selection: Picking the Optimal Location in a Vast Land of Opportunity
Selecting the right location for a new US investment project is more than simply pins on a map. It's a strategic move that can influence all aspects of a company’s goals, from logistics and project economics to technical design and schedule. In addition, it requires weaving together the other contributing factors this blog highlights, like incentives and social license.
Across an array of subject areas, different states and regions vary widely in terms of risks and opportunities for new projects:
Logistics and proximity to key markets or other points of interest
State and local regulatory ecosystem
Government and community support
Incentive availability and eligibility
Tax environment
Utility availability and cost, in addition to other infrastructure
Political and cultural climate
Labor pool economics and availability, in addition to workforce development programs
All these factors and others need to be rigorously interrogated within the context of the project, investigated within targeted regions, and then weighed against each other to make an optimal site selection determination. Conducting a proper site selection process is as important as the end product because it tees up success for the next steps with the selected site. Cultivating government support, negotiating incentives, and other elements necessary for eventual project execution begin when multiple sites are still on the board.
Recommendation: Approach site selection as an integral element of eventual project success and as a fully integrated equation across a range of relevant subject areas. Find a US-based partner that knows how to conduct a successful site selection process and is already familiar with your targeted regions
Is Your US Investment Strategy Prepared for What Comes Next?
The stakes in the 2024 US election aren’t just domestic—they’re global. The outcome will undoubtedly introduce new hurdles and open new doors for foreign companies with eyes on US investments. Foreign companies can take actionable steps now to position themselves for success, regardless of the election result.
At Civic Forge, we specialize in guiding foreign businesses through the complexities of US government affairs, from site selection and funding opportunities to community engagement and public policy. Through our Solutions Discovery Process, we help you assess the unique challenges and opportunities your project faces in the US market and create a roadmap for successful execution.
Want to learn more about how we can help your investment projects navigate the changing US political landscape with confidence and turn ambiguity into advantage? Reach out to us at info@thecivicforge.com.